Fan expectations for the 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers season vary from missing the playoffs to a Super Bowl ring. Ahead of the Bucs’ first game on Sunday, here is a game-by-game analysis of their schedule to level the expectations.

Week 1 @ Falcons: W (1-0)

Score prediction: 31-20

While the Falcons’ young offensive core is continuing to mature, Michael Penix remains an unproven quarterback, and this will be his first Week 1 start. He will be lining up across from a Tampa defense that is much healthier and more consummate than last year, and Bucs head coach Todd Bowles will be eager to prove he can still coach a top-10 defense after an abysmal 2024. That, coupled with the fact that the Falcons’ patchy defense will struggle against Tampa’s weapons, will lead to a two-score Bucs win.

Week 2 @ Texans: W (2-0)

Score prediction: 24-21

The big storyline for this game will be the Texans’ inability to establish the run. Vita Vea, Lavonte David and company will attack a questionable Houston offensive line, and without Joe Mixon, the Texans will struggle to run the ball. CJ Stroud will take a step forward from last season’s sophomore slump, but Haason Reddick will prove himself in a Tampa Bay uniform in this game.

Week 3 vs Jets: W (3-0)

Score prediction: 39-10

The Jets have a brand-new head coach, a quarterback who has yet to show the ability to read a defense at the NFL level and a defense filled with holes. If this Bucs team is as good as its roster on paper, Tampa rolls.

Week 4 vs Eagles: L (3-1)

Score prediction: 27-33

This one is truly a toss-up game. The Bucs have been very successful against Philadelphia in the past couple seasons, including a relatively lopsided win against the Eagles last season. However, Philly is just a wagon — their defense remains intact, Hurts gashes Tampa with his legs and the Eagles take an offensive game.

Week 5 @ Seahawks: W (4-1)

Score prediction: 26-17

After suffering their first loss, the Bucs’ defense makes quarterback Sam Darnold very uncomfortable and forces multiple turnovers. The Bucs get back in the win column.

Week 6 vs 49ers: W (5-1)

Score prediction: 22-20

San Francisco was pretty awful last year, but that was an absolute anomaly. The 49ers’ offensive line is still star-studded, Christian McCaffrey looks like he will be back fully and Fred Warner still commands the defense. With that being said, San Francisco’s offense will be too one-dimensional with its banged-up receiving corps to make enough noise to win in Tampa. The Bucs win a close one to stay comfortably at the top of the NFC South.

Week 7 @ Lions: L (5-2)

Score prediction: 24-34

Detroit was a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2024 before the team was hit with a plague of injuries. With this matchup being in Week 7 and in Detroit, the Lions’ new coordinators will have their feet under them, and the Detroit squad will likely be largely healthy. The Lions take this one at Ford Field.

Week 8 @ Saints: W (6-2)

Score prediction: 16-13

This matchup should not be close on paper, but as division rivalries often go, it will be closer than it should be. This will be a full-grit moment for the Tampa defense, and it will be Antoine Winfield Jr’s chance to show he’s really back against an inexperienced quarterback.

Week 9 BYE

The Bucs look back on great start to their season.

Week 10 vs Patriots: L (6-3)

Score prediction: 31-38

Unfortunately for Tampa Bay fans, the Bucs will be on the receiving end of Drake Maye’s coming out party. This will be the oddest loss on Tampa’s schedule. On the road in Tampa, Maye will shake off a mediocre start to his season by gashing the Bucs’ defense in the passing game. The Bucs’ roster could be looking ahead to a massive game the week after in Buffalo. It’s a weird shout, but if Tampa’s secondary enters this game too confident or looking past New England, it’s a definite possibility.

Week 11 @ Bills: L (6-4)

Score prediction: 13-40

This will be the first (and only) lopsided loss Tampa suffers all season. On the road in Buffalo, in mid-November, the Bucs will have to contend with the elements of an early cold snap. Josh Allen will exploit any injuries Tampa’s defense has suffered to this point, and it will be an ugly one for the Bucs.

Week 12 @ Rams: L (6-5)

Score prediction: 20-21

The Bucs defense largely rebounds from an embarrassment at the hands of the Bills, but the offense sputters with a couple poor turnovers. A three-game losing streak becomes a tough pill to swallow after a hot start to the season.

Week 13 vs Cardinals: W (7-5)

Score prediction: 42-7

And so it begins. With a cake walk for a final third of their schedule, the Bucs remember who their roster says they should be. Baker Mayfield finds his fully healthy weapons for five touchdowns, the defense contains Kyler Murray, and the Bucs steamroll the Cardinals as a homecoming gift to their fans.

Week 14 vs Saints: W (8-5)

Score prediction: 30-10

The Saints play the Bucs hard at every meeting, but at this point, New Orleans will not have anything to play for in their season. Alvin Kamara punches in one touchdown after a turnover gives the Saints a short field, but aside from that, this game is never really in question.

Week 15 vs Falcons: W (9-5)

Score prediction: 37-34

This will be the biggest win of Tampa’s regular season. Atlanta, at this point, will still be within striking distance of the NFC South title, and this will be a prove-it moment for Bowles and Mayfield. Mayfield will take care of the ball and the Bucs will win the battle in the trenches with their offensive line. The Falcons may make a comeback in the second half, but Tampa keeps them at arms reach to all but seal the division.

Week 16 @ Panthers: L (9-6)

Score prediction: 28-31

The Bucs will think they’re home free with an easy end to their schedule, but former Tampa Bay coach Dave Canales will throw a rock in that plan. Crafty play calls and solid quarterback play from breakout candidate Bryce Young will catapult division rival Carolina to a 1-0 season record against the division leader Bucs.

Week 17 @ Dolphins: W (10-6)

Score prediction: 44-12

This will be all the pent-up anger from the Week 16 Carolina loss. At this point, Mike McDaniel may be out as the Dolphins’ coach, Tyreek Hill could be traded and Miami’s stadium could be half empty. The Bucs make a short trip south to take care of business.

Week 18 vs Panthers: W (11-6)

Score prediction: 34-16

Having already mathematically missed the playoffs, the Panthers aren’t too keen to do the same thing they did in Week 16. The Bucs will be playing for playoff seeding, and with this win, they will put themselves in good position and headspace to make a solid playoff run. The team will be largely healthy, and it will use the run-up to the Wild Card round to throw wrinkles in its play calling on both sides of the ball.

If the Bucs reach an 11-6 record, despite a three-game skid in the middle of the year, they will be in good position for a solid playoff push. With a weak division, they will take the NFC South crown comfortably and play a lower-half seed in the first round of the playoffs.