Ladies and gentlemen… football. No, actually this time! We are less than 48 hours away from the Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 matchup against the Kings of the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs.

History?

This matchup is another installment in the AFC West matchup that has seen the Chargers drop 7 straight since a win in Arrowhead, back when Charger fans still saw hope in a Brandon Staley-run team. The Chiefs escaped two one-possession games vs the Chargers last year, including overcoming an early 10 point deficit in their first matchup, and a game-winning doink in the second meeting. Notably, the Chargers were not even close to healthy in either matchup, missing clear WR1 Ladd McConkey in the 2nd game and an assortment of talent in the 1st matchup, add in the fact that Justin Herbert was noticeably hindered with an ankle injury in both games, it is no wonder why the Chargers were 7.5 point underdogs and 5.5 point underdogs respectively, in both matchups. Nonetheless, Coach Jim Harbaugh had his guys playing competitive football against the eventual AFC Champions. It will be very interesting to see how a healthy Chargers team stacks up against this iteration of Coach Andy Reid’s squad.

What’s New?

This Chargers team does not have too much roster turnover, to many Charger fans, that was the problem with this past offseason, but there were still certain pieces that the Bolts moved on from as well as some that they brought in. The Chargers moved on from Joey Bosa, Kristian Fulton (now on the other side of this rivalry), Poona Ford, Joshua Palmer, and JK Dobbins and brought in names like Donte Jackson, Mehki Becton, Najee Harris, and 1st round draft pick Omarion Hampton, as well as the greatest receiver in franchise history, Keenan Allen! Meanwhile, on the other side of the story, the Kansas City Chiefs brought in the aforementioned Kristian Fulton, left tackle Jaylon Moore, but they also lost names such as Joe Thuney, DeAndre Hopkins, and Justin Reid. Watching a Coach Steve Spagnuolo led defense is almost always intimidating, but these recent units have been at their most dangerous when they have a safety like Tyrann Mathieu or most recently, Justin Reid, so it will be interesting to see how this Chiefs defense looks when they don’t have a true game changer at either safety position. 

Chargers vs. Chiefs: By the Numbers

• The Chiefs are 3 point favorites

• The KC offense scored 3 total touchdowns on 20 drives against Jesse Minter’s squad

• The Chiefs only allowed 1 100-yard receiver last year

• The Chiefs offense had the 30th ranked explosive play rate last year, with 7.6%

• The Chargers are looking to improve on their 18th ranked rushing offense (-0.08 EPA per rush)

• The Chiefs pass defense was the weakest portion of the defense, ranked 18th in EPA allowed/pass (0.04)

My Prediction

Now, if anyone knows me, I am irrationally pessimistic regarding anything related to the Chargers. Which makes this upcoming prediction from me feel so odd. The Chiefs were a team that found themselves winning a multitude of games that almost felt unnatural, and not in the “Oh, they just find a way” kind of way of winning, more in the way that led to people accusing them of devil magic; in other words, regression to the mean is inevitable. The loss of Justin Reid and Joe Thuney has the potential to be a challenging two things to overcome throughout the season, and it feels like Week 1 is a great time to catch a team with a 40-22 Super Bowl embarrassment still on the mind. The Chiefs will be a good football team, maybe even a great one, but I am going to (probably very stupidly) plant my flag and say this Chiefs team has a lot more question marks than people are willing to admit and this Week 1 divisional matchup may bring some of them to light against a hungry, physical Chargers team looking to finally get one over Mahomes and co. 

I’m going to do it, I’m going to predict a Chargers W in Brazil to break the seven-game losing streak against the Big Bad Chiefs. The Chargers finally win a close one, 27-24, to kick off their 2025-26 campaign.