The New York Yankees have been rolling through August, winning eight of their last nine games and keeping pressure on the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East. But beneath the surface of their strong run lies a problem that could derail their push if it isn’t solved quickly: Max Fried’s slump.

Fried, acquired to be the steady ace behind Gerrit Cole, has hit his roughest patch at the worst possible time. His last outing against the St. Louis Cardinals was nothing short of disastrous. He gave up seven earned runs, including two home runs, and somehow still returned with the win thanks to New York’s offense bailing him out. The result was misleading—his ERA shot up over 3.00 for the first time all year, now sitting at 3.26 after being as low as 1.92 in late June.

As the Yankees prepare for a four-game set with the Boston Red Sox, insider Chris Kirschner of The Athletic didn’t mince words about the importance of the Fried problem. “In my view, Fried’s struggles are the biggest concern for the Yankees. He has a 6.80 ERA in his past eight starts, and there haven’t been many positives in those outings,” Kirschner wrote.

That number isn’t just a blip—it’s a trend that has forced the Yankees to confront the fact that what should have been an anchor in their rotation is turning into an unpredictable liability.

Manager Aaron Boone has repeatedly pointed to Fried’s command as the issue, not his stuff. And on the surface, that holds weight—walks are up, and too many pitches are catching the middle of the plate. However, the advanced metrics suggest something more complicated might be going on.

The left-hander left a July start against the Cubs with a blister on his index finger. The Yankees have publicly dismissed the idea that the blister is still a factor. Yet Kirschner noted that one of Fried’s most important pitches, his curveball, has taken a noticeable dip. Before July 1, Fried’s curveball carried a 120 Stuff+ grade; since then, it’s dropped to 111. Opponents’ slugging percentage against the pitch has jumped from .321 before July to .409 after.

That kind of shift can’t just be explained away by “bad command.” For a Yankees team trying to keep pace in the division and gear up for October, the margin of error shrinks against a rival like the Red Sox. If Fried can’t find his curveball again, the Yankees may have to rethink their rotation plans down the stretch.

For a team with October aspirations, this series in Boston serves as an early test. The Yankees’ offense is peaking, their bullpen looks steady, and Cole remains elite. But unless Fried returns to form, the Yankees’ playoff hopes could hinge on whether their supposed No. 2 starter can stop looking like their biggest question mark.