- Steven Hieneman
- 4d
- 3 min read
This was probably a pretty happy bye week for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who now sit at 6-2. But this Sunday marks the start of the most difficult three-game stretch on Tampa’s calendar. It will begin with the 7-2 New England Patriots at home, followed by a trip to Buffalo to take on the Bills (6-2) and a trek out to Los Angeles for Sunday Night Football against the Rams (6-2). The stretch is a gauntlet, and it represents a make-or-break opportunity for the Bucs to take control of the NFC playoff picture.
Each good-on-good matchup poses a different challenge, and to respond to those challenges, each game has a most important key to success. Here’s a look at those keys:
Patriots: Take What the Defense Gives You
The Drake Maye-led Patriots offense is a bear, but if Tampa executes a solid offensive game plan, they have the firepower to make this game a high-scoring affair.
The mistake many teams have been making against New England this year is trying to attack the Pats’ defense too conventionally. The conventional approach includes doing what teams can to establish the run early, including many run plays on first downs against heavy boxes. With that approach, teams have been getting behind the chains, leading to difficult 2nd-and-long situations.
Through Week 9, the Pats have the best run defense in the NFL, and it isn’t particularly close. They average 75.4 rushing yards allowed, which is more than 10 yards better than the second-place Seahawks. There’s no sugar-coating it—their run defense is straight-up dominant.
With that being said, Bucs offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard can’t be afraid to pull the trigger on pass plays on first down, especially early in the game. Even a spot route for four yards against zone coverage is better than a run getting stuffed for no gain. If the Bucs show they’re willing to air the ball out on early downs, the Patriots’ defense will have to ease its stranglehold on the run game, and it could open the running lanes from the second quarter on.
Bills: Stack Up the Ground Game
While the Patriots have a suffocating run defense, the Bills have a dynamic rush offense. Running back James Cook has been a bona fide problem for opposing defenses, averaging 5.7 yards per carry, which is tied for a league high among tailbacks. On top of his production, quarterback Josh Allen’s legs are always a threat, both when he escapes the pocket and on designed runs in the red zone.
With that being said, Cook has only had three games all season where he has rushed for less than 100 yards. In two of those games, he did not find the end zone. It is no coincidence that those two games are the Bills’ two losses.
The Bucs have had a great run defense for years now, led by nose tackle Vita Vea. They will need him healthy and wrecking the line of scrimmage to stack up Cook and Allen, and if they do that, the Bills’ offense has proven it will stall.
Rams: Coverage is Key
There was a lot of talk about the run game in the Patriots and Bills matchups, but against Matt Stafford and the Rams, it’s all about playing successful defense when the ball is airborne.
When healthy, the Rams’ passing attack is lethal. Stafford averages the most passing yards per game among active quarterbacks through Week 9, and the team arguably has two top-20 receivers on its roster: Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.
While both Nacua and Adams are versatile, they each have their specialties. Nacua, who has been debatably the best receiver in the league this year, operates all over the field—slot and wide—and from everywhere, he is a nightmare against zone coverage. Adams, on the other hand, typically stays in his own lane on the outside, and he attacks man coverage effectively. But if the Bucs can disguise their coverages well for even a couple of seconds on blitzes and disturb Stafford, it gives them a fighting chance against what may be the most lethal passing attack in the NFL.

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