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Denver Broncos’ Predictable Playcalling Prevents Offense from Reaching Potential

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Team of destiny or an undisciplined squad that keeps getting bailed out? It’s hard to figure out what to make of the Denver Broncos after another improbable fourth-quarter comeback win.


Through three quarters of Sunday’s game against the New York Giants, the game was one of the most frustrating watches of the Sean Payton era. Naturally, the game couldn’t be that simple. The Broncos somehow stormed back and took a 30-26 lead with less than two minutes remaining, just when New York seemed down and out. However, a couple of Denver penalties resulted in a Giants score, and then it was the Broncos who appeared out of answers.


A lucky deep shot to Marvin Mims Jr. and a great catch by Courtland Sutton set Wil Lutz up with a game-winning field goal opportunity. Lutz converted the kick, capping a 33-point fourth quarter and pushing Denver into first place in the AFC West.


The past three weeks of Denver football have been an odd mix of thrilling endings and horrible gameplay, and this win is the most difficult one to make sense of, but to best understand what this win means, the win should be viewed as separate games: the disastrous first three quarters and then the astonishing fourth.


In the first three quarters, Denver couldn’t move the ball at all. The offense was made of screen passes, dig routes and confusing deep shots, and nothing seemed to work.


Anyone who watches Broncos games knows Payton’s infatuation with screen passes. In Sunday’s game, Denver utilized the screen play on nearly 20% of its snaps, 11 of 56 dropbacks, according to Pro Football Focus.


In total, Bo Nix attempted 30 passes within 10 yards and only 14 more than 10 yards down the field. When he is completing a high percentage of those passes, the offense can look smooth, but it also makes the offense easy to predict.


The Broncos had too many plays where New York knew what they were doing. The Giants batted five of Nix’s pass attempts Sunday. Nix also leads the league with 10 batted passes, according to PFF.


While the precarious playcalling could be for several reasons, it feels like Payton is limiting the passing attack because he is worried about Nix’s ability to perform, yet he is putting the ball in his hands a lot because he wants him to develop into a top quarterback.


Though, when opposing defenses know more than half of Nix’s attempts are coming from screens and slants, it makes it less likely they will respect the deep ball, and those short passes will be less successful.


When Denver started its comeback, Payton started to let Nix loose, and the offense started moving the ball. Some of that came from letting Nix use his legs to make a difference. Nix is one of the better rushing quarterbacks in the league, and his two rushing touchdowns were massive plays Sunday. While Payton’s playcalling has been spotty, his call out of the two-minute warning was the perfect decision.


He called a quarterback power run from the 18-yard line, and Nix took the ball into the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown. Despite his frustrating calls, Payton has a handful of calls every game that are truly brilliant. Right now, though, he generally calls games too safely.


Nix has also been great as the game winds down this season. Some of that could be because of the calls Payton gives Nix, but Nix also could just be better in high-pressure, high-tempo moments.


When trailing this season, Nix has 1,044 total yards, 11 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 76.3% adjusted completion rate.



“Obviously, we get into two-minute offense — I don’t want to hear about tempo,” Payton said Sunday. “You can’t just have a long two-minute drill touchdown; we had chunks.”


Clearly, Payton has no plans to change his schematic approach, but it also seems as though he knows Nix and the offense have been best when they are finding chunk plays and operating quickly. Payton still is one of the best play designers in the league, but he needs to find a way to keep the offense moving.

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