No, I don’t mean Southeastern Conference (SEC) or Big Ten teams exactly. Both of those conferences are going to get at least a few teams each in the CFP regardless. Now, those two conferences’ own conference title races could come down to the very last week, but the teams from those two leagues that are actually in the CFP discussion will have likely already been decided. What I’m really referencing is the race for the Group of Six (G6) CFP representative.

Thanks to chaos in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), 2025 saw not just one but two G5 (now G6 with the emergence of the new-look Pac 12) make the College Football Playoff in American Conference title winner, Tulane, and the Sun Belt winner, James Madison (JMU).

Notice how I termed the title of this article as “representative?” As in singular. I don’t see two G6 teams making the CFP this season without SIGNIFICANT chaos nationally among the P4 leagues. I say this for four reasons: In 2024, both Boise State and UNLV performed well in the non-conference against P4 competition, while both cruised through MW play to set up a “play-in” situation in the MW Conference Championship. Meaning, regardless of who won between Boise and UNLV, the Mountain West was going to have the then G5 CFP representative.

This past season, it was the American Conference that separated itself with a CFP “play-in” conference championship between Tulane and North Texas. At the same time, the Sun Belt’s JMU also made the CFP thanks to Duke beating Virginia in the ACC Championship.

Thanks to today’s era of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) as well as the transfer portal, essentially all of the American Conference’s top teams, as well as JMU, have been decimated by the portal, and nearly all of last season’s top G5 teams now have new head coaches for 2026. There are many unknowns across the G6 landscape from a roster and staff perspective. But the G6 will also have an increase in difficulty from a schedule standpoint.

Every P4 conference is moving to a nine-game conference schedule in 2026. This affects the G6 nationally, as now every G6 team will have one less opportunity to make a statement in the non-conference. Now, there are still some opportunities like Boise State traveling to Eugene to face a likely top-five Oregon in week one, as well as defending Mid American Conference (MAC) champion, Western Michigan (WMU), facing Michigan in week one right before the Wolverines host Oklahoma in a marquee P4 v P4 non-conference matchup. Speaking of Oklahoma, the Sooners must face a trending-up G6 program in New Mexico right in between big road games against Michigan and Georgia, and perhaps the most likely G6 over P4 opportunity for the entire 2026 regular season occurs in week zero when Hawaii travels to Stanford (Hawaii just beat Stanford in 2025).

Because there are fewer opportunities for statement wins in the non-conference for the G6 this coming fall, perhaps this year’s G6 CFP representative won’t even have a victory against a P4 opponent, or much less, even have a scheduled game against a power conference opponent, like Memphis and South Florida (USF).

USF has the highest-ranked G6 transfer portal class in the country. However, the Bulls must replace more than half of their starting 22 from last year after multiple significant contributors transferred to Auburn. USF also has a brand new and first-time head coach in former Ohio State offensive coordinator Brian Hartline. Memphis will likewise be replacing a lot of production and will also have a new coach in former Southern Miss Head Coach Charles Huff. Despite the Tigers not playing a P4 opponent, they do at least have opportunities to impress the CFP committee with marquee matchups on the road against other G6 conference title contenders in Boise State and UNLV.

Maybe this year’s G6 playoff representative somehow doesn’t even win its conference championship game (because of the new CFP rules) but makes national noise early with a couple of P4 wins against teams with new-look rosters (hello, Delaware). After all, if a G6 team has strong showings in the non-conference against P4 competition, they’ll have a better argument to be one of the 12 “best” and not simply just be a cute story because their schedule set them up well.

With the teams I’ve mentioned in this article - Boise State (Pac 12) Hawaii, UNLV, New Mexico (MW), WMU (MAC), JMU (Sun Belt), Memphis, USF (American) and Delaware (Conference USA) — I’ve just named at least one team from every G6 conference that could make a run at the College Football Playoff. And there are other contenders too… this is in a future article.

With a lack of coaching and player continuity combined with enhanced scheduling conflicts around the entire G6 landscape, this year’s G6 CFP race could be the closest one yet of the expanded playoff era, but who wouldn’t want a down-to-the-wire finish to find out which G6 team ultimately makes the College Football Playoff?

I don’t anticipate one G6 league separating itself with strong non-conference play like the Mountain West (MW) in 2024 or the American in 2025. Opportunity is a little slimmer for “G6 over power four (P4)” results based on all 138 FBS team 2026 schedules, including now all P4 (those conferences being the SEC, Big Ten, Big Twelve & the ACC) leagues moving to nine-game conference schedules. The G6 representative doesn’t have to necessarily be a conference champion based on the new CFP rules and format. After last season’s CFP performances from Tulane and JMU, the committee will stress putting in the 12 “best” teams rather than the 12 most “deserving.”