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Birds in the Bayou: Part Two

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It’s officially kickoff week for the NFL, and with the opening matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys just one day away, it’s time to finish up our deep dive into the Arizona Cardinals' week one matchup with the New Orleans Saints.


Last week, we examined what Cards’ fans could expect from the New Orleans defense, and today, we’re going to flip the script, looking at a potentially underrated Saints offense and how it matches up with what should be a much-improved Arizona defense.


The Saints' sneaky ground game


The Saints' offense will undergo some changes this season, mostly in terms of schematic adjustments, while the roster talent will remain largely similar to that of 2024.


Kellen Moore comes as the head coach after six years of experience as an offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Los Angeles Chargers and Eagles. Moore will call plays, and his four top-10 scoring offenses highlight his proficiency as an offensive mind.


While his results have been reasonably consistent, his run-pass tendencies have fluctuated throughout his career. While in Dallas, Moore’s offenses remained balanced, ranking between sixth to 15th in rushing attempts and second to 19th in passing attempts. When Moore left for the Chargers, his offense heavily skewed towards the pass, ranking third in passing attempts while only 24th in rushing.


Interestingly enough, this tendency fully flipped this past season in Philly, with the Eagles ranking first in rush attempts and 32nd in passing attempts. It seems clear that Moore will tailor his playcalling to the personnel he has on the roster. His year in LA attempting a pass-heavy approach was a disaster that ended up 21st in points scored. With balance and a skew towards the ground game, this is likely his sweet spot.


While it feels like many people around the league are sleeping on the potential of this offense to be solid, you certainly can’t blame them for being sound asleep when this QB room is brought up. The Saints recently settled their quarterback competition between second-year incumbent Spencer Rattler and rookie Tyler Shough.


The job is Rattler's, and the former fifth-round pick brings an underwhelming skillset to the table. As a rookie, Rattler completed a paltry 57% of his passes for 1,317 yards in seven games (188 YPG) and an interception ratio of 4:5. The counting stats look rough, and his PFF passing grade of 49.4 doesn’t offer much optimism under the hood, ranking 67 out of 75 qualifying quarterbacks.


Rattler has a solid arm and offers mobility that could help in the run game, but he has accuracy issues and struggles with decision-making, as evidenced by a turnover-worthy throw percentage of 4.9%, placing him among passers such as Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Drew Lock and Jameis Winston, if that helps get the point across. Some small progress isn’t far-fetched, but it’s tough to expect Rattler to be anything more than something between the 30th and 32nd-ranked quarterback in the league.


When looking at the group of weapons Rattler has to work with, you can begin to see some optimism with this offense. Starting with Alvin Kamara in the backfield, he’ll once again be the focal point of the offense in 2025, and he’s certainly still got fuel left in the tank, as his 41 missed tackles forced in 2024 were the third-best mark of his career. Still a threat out of the backfield in the receiving game as well, there’s hope the Saints won’t have to rely on Kamara so much this season, but the likelihood of that happening falls on the shoulders of two talented pass catchers with questions about durability.


First is Chris Olave, who has proven to be a good player since he was selected 11th overall in 2022. A solid route runner with genuine speed, he's produced when on the field, yet hasn’t ascended to that tier of game-changing wide receivers some thought he could, and that could very well be due to his unfortunate history with concussions. Olave seems healthy and ready to go this year, and he could present a real challenge if Rattler surprises.


Olave’s running mate is Rashid Shaheed, a certified burner of a deep threat that will make you pay for biting on play action. Shaheed is also returning from a knee injury in 2025, which always makes you pause before making any declarations about how someone will look on the field early, but it’s safe to say Shaheed’s speed is real, and he has the opportunity to flip a game on its head in an instant.


The tight end room deserves a shout as well, with veteran Juwan Johnson providing a reliable target over the middle, and it’s impossible to mention the Saints offense without the impact that Taysom Hill provides as a wildcat quarterback; however, he will miss at least the first month of the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, so Arizona does not need to gameplan for his skillset.


The offensive line is the biggest reason for optimism with this team, with potentially three great starters and a position change that could raise the upside even higher.


Starting with the man in the middle, Erik McCoy, which staying healthy would mean great things for this line in 2025. Limited to only five complete games in 2024, McCoy was dominant while on the field, posting a whopping 94.4 PFF blocking grade, and his week three injury was a big reason why the Saints' offense torpedoed after back-to-back 40+ point outbursts to open the season. The term “imposing run blocker” can fit multiple other players on this line, but McCoy is truly a one-man wrecking crew, and New Orleans should be ecstatic to have him back.


Jumping outside to the offensive tackles, second-year right tackle Taliese Fuaga looked as advertised in his rookie year, putting up a solid 65.7 blocking grade. Another fantastic run blocker, Fuaga has work to do as a pass protector, and with rookie Kelvin Banks Jr. assuming the left tackle role, Fuaga gets to move back to the right side, where he played at Oregon State University.


Speaking of Banks Jr., we won’t know what to expect out of the ninth overall pick in this year's draft until Sunday afternoon, but he started for the University of Texas the day he stepped on campus. While not a total people mover in the run game, he easily has the highest pass protection ceiling along the entire line.


Moving to the guards, Cesar Ruiz remains the right guard, and he’s about the line for an average NFL starter: you aren’t thrilled with him, but you can survive with him as your weakest link. Whether or not Ruiz is the Saints' weakest link depends on how Trevor Penning looks at left guard.


Drafted as a tackle out of the University of Northern Iowa in 2022, Penning is a stunning athlete who entered the league without much pass-protection technique to speak of, and through three seasons, has been an absolute liability in pass protection. A shift inside to guard will give him a chance to use his power and athleticism against slower defensive tackles, while making it easier for Moore to scheme up double-team help in pass protection.


Plenty of tackle-to-guard experiments have failed in the past, but this move gives Penning a second chance to succeed, and the Saints an upside gamble on a formidable front five.


How the Cardinals might respond


The Saints have built a big, athletic offensive line and invested in speed on the outside. This team wants to run you over, then do it again, and 35 times after that. This offense is built to control the clock, then burn you with play-action shots if you get too aggressive in attempting to stop the run.


If this were 2024, I’d say Arizona was in serious trouble with the defensive line they put on the field last year, but with an infusion of talent that goes two rotations deep, Arizona can hit the ground running.


Unfortunately for the Cardinals, the injury bug has bitten hard in the last month, knocking out veteran defensive tackles Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones, along with rookie defensive tackle Walter Nolen, the team's top draft choice. With the defensive tackle depth thinned out, the roles of Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson become massive. Both are incredibly capable, but it’s imperative that the Saints aren’t able to extend many drives and tire them out.


The edge room is much healthier, missing only BJ Ojulari for the opener. Josh Sweat makes his much-anticipated debut after coming over from Philadelphia, and he’s flanked by Darius Robinson, who Arizona hopes can give them a healthy and improved season.


Add in contributions from Zaven Collins against the run, Baron Browning as a situational rusher and rookie Jordan Burch, and this new line should get after it on third downs. Expect this defense to dominate obvious passing situations, and the Saints to try and avoid those downs as much as possible.


Game prediction: Cardinals win 27-17


Getting out to a fast start is imperative for a Saints offense that wants to grind you down, and New Orleans electing to take the ball first wouldn’t shock me in the slightest. The Saints likely give Arizona a good punch in the mouth with an early score before the Cardinals settle in on offense, allow the pass rush to pin its ears back, and cruise to a sound victory in the opening weekend.

Author Name:

Mason Bartholomew

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